Conference Program


Wednesday (Women in Political Methodology Panels)

1:00 PM - 

Registration (North Lobby)

1:30 PM - 2:55 PM

WPM Faculty Panel: Text Analysis (Amphitheater)

"Gender Composition and Participation in Congressional Committees"
Pamela Ban, Justin Grimmer, Jaclyn Kaslovskyk, and Emily West

"Disunity in the Ranks: Ideological Extremism and Out-Party Status in Congressional Rhetoric"
Rachel Blum, Justin Grimmer, David Parker, Craig Goodman, and Frances Zlotnick

"Topics as Outcomes: Using Structural Topic Models to Measure Policy Diffusion"
NaLette Brodnax and Sarah James

Discussant: Rebekah Tromble
Chair: Rocío Titiunik

2:55 PM - 3:15 PM

Break (Aspen Room)

3:15 - 4:20 PM

WPM Graduate Student Panel: Machine Learning Applications (Amphitheater)

Dangers, Toils, and Snares: U.S. Senators' Rhetoric of Public Insecurity and Religiosity
Emily Gade, Sarah Dreier, Jon Schaeffer, John Wilkerson, and Anne Washington

"Territorial control in civil wars: Theory and Measurement using Machine Learning"
Therese Anders

Discussant: Lisa Argyle
Chair: Betsy Sinclair

4:25 - 5:30 PM

WPM Graduate Student Panel: Text Analysis (Amphitheater)

"Give me the full picture: Using computer vision tounderstand visual frames and political communication"
Michelle Torres

"Fighting Words: Using Natural Language Processing to Detect Partisan Polarization in Text"
Masha Krupenkin

Discussant: Emily Gade
Chair: Betsy Sinclair

5:30 - 6:30 PM

WPM Reception (Aspen Room)

Thursday

7:30 AM

Registration (North Lobby)

8:00 - 8:40 AM

Breakfast (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

8:40 - 9:00 AM

Plenary Opening (Zion Room)

9:00 - 10:15 AM

Regular Presentations (3 concurrent)

"Boring in a New Way: Estimation and Inference for Political Style at Westminster, 1935–2018"
Arthur Spirling, Leslie Huang, and Patrick O. Perry
Discussant: Juraj Medzihorsky
Chair: John Kuk
(Zion Room)

"Inference for Instrumental Variables: A Randomization Inference Approach"
Hyunseung Kang, Laura Peck, and Luke Keele
Discussant: Hiroto Katsumata
Chair: Carmen Le Foulon
(Cedar Room)

"Imputing Across Types of Item Nonresponse in Surveys"
Natalie Jackson
Discussant: Sunshine Hillygus
Chair: Lonna Atkeson
(Birch Room)

10:15 - 10:35 AM

Break (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

10:35 - 12:00 Noon

Short Presentations (3 concurrent panels, 3 papers each)

Text Analysis: New Methods (Zion Room)

"Latent semantic analysis of a Brexit Survey Experiment"
Annika Fredén 

"An Improved Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science"
Connor T. Jerzak, Gary King, and Anton Strezhnev

"Differences in fake vs real news"
Leah Windsor and Zhiqiang "Carl" Cai

Discussant: Shahryar Minhas
Chair: Natalie Jackson


Causal Inference on TSCS data
(Cedar Room)

"Trajectory Balancing: A General Reweighting Approach to Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data"
Chad Hazlett and Yiqing Xu 

"Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences and Difference-in-Difference-in-Differences with Placebo and Surrogate Outcomes"
Adam Glynn and Nahomi Ichino

"Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Section Data"
Kosuke Imai, In Song Kim, and Erik Wang

Discussant: Nathaniel Beck 
Chair: Karen Jusko


Estimating Preferences 
(Birch Room)

"Constructing and Repairing our Bridges: Statistical Considerations When Placing Agents into Legislative Preference Space"
Kevin M. Esterling     

"Coalitions at the Constitutional Convention"
Jeremy Pope and Shawn Treier

"Legislator Arithmetic: Ideal Points as Neural Networks"
Daniel Argyle           

Discussant: Constanza Schibber
Chair: Alex Tahk

12:00 Noon - 2:00 PM

Lunch (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)
Graduate Student Poster Session: Thursday

2:00p-3:15p

Regular Presentations (3 concurrent)

"What Counts as Terrorism?"
Emily Gade, Dallas Card, Sarah Dreier, and Noah Smith
Discussant: Jacob Montgomery
Chair: Mark Nieman
(Zion Room)

"Telescope Matching: A Flexible Approach to Estimating Direct Effects"
Matthew Blackwell and Anton Strezhnev
Discussant: Yiqing Xu
Chair: Erin Hartman
(Cedar Room)

"Mapping Political Communities: A Statistical Analysis of Lobbying Networks in Legislative Politics"
In Song Kim and Dmitriy Kunisky
Discussant: Jeff Harden
Chair: Rachel Blum
(Birch Room)

3:15p-3:35p

Break (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

3:35p-5:00p

Short Presentations (3 concurrent panels, 3 papers each) 

Text Analysis: Events (Zion Room)

"Taming the Firehose: Thematically summarizing very large news corpora using topic modeling"
Philip Schrodt 

"Comparing Big Event Datasets"
Patrick T. Brandt, Vito D’Orazio, and Jared Looper 

"Power of Words: Tracking The Influence of Terrorist Statements With Text Processing"
Laila Wahedi 

Discussant: Richard Nielsen 
Chair: Florian Hollenbach


Generalizing estimators
(Cedar Room)

"Residual Balancing: An Efficient and Robust Method of Constructing Weights for Marginal Structural Models"
Xiang Zhou and Geoffrey T. Wodtke 

"Event Sequences in Disputed Issues"
Shawna K. Metzger and Emily U. Schilling

 "A Unified Theory of Regression Adjustment for Design-based Inference"
Joel Middleton

Discussant: Mirya Holman
Chair: Justin Esarey


Networks
 (Birch Room)

"Dynamic Stochastic Blockmodel Regression for Social Networks: Application to International Conflicts"
Santiago Olivella, Tyler B. Pratt, and Kosuke Imai 

"An International Game of Risk: Troop Placement and Major Power Competition"
Carla Martinez Machain, Mark David Nieman, Olga Chyzh, and Sam R. Bell

"Network Dependence in the Diffusion of Policy"
Frederick J. Boehmke, Ki Eun Ryu, Mark Brockway, Bruce Desmarais, Jeff Harden, Scott LaCombe, Fridolin Linder, and Hanna Wallach

Discussant: Cassy Dorff
Chair: Emily Gade


Friday

7:30 AM -

Registration (North Lobby)

8:00 - 9:00 AM

Breakfast and non-academic panel discussion (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)
Annie Franco, Facebook
Erin Hartman, UCLA (previously Blue Labs)
Natalie Jackson, JUST Capital
Solomon Messing, Facebook
Phil Schrodt, Parus Analytics
Chair: Justin Grimmer

9:00 - 10:15 AM

Regular Presentations (3 concurrent) 

"A Dynamic Model of Speech for the Social Sciences"
Dean Knox and Christopher Lucas
Discussant: Bryce Dietrich   
Chair: NaLette Brodnax
(Zion Room)  

"The Geography of Inequality: How Land Use Regulation Produces Segregation and Polarization"
Jessica Trounstine
Discussant: Karen Jusko
Chair: Clayton Webb
(Amphitheater)

Bayesian lasso estimation of treatment e ffects in regression discontinuity designs
Jason Anastasopoulos
Discussant: Erin Hartman
Chair: Jessica Preece
(Birch Room)

10:15 - 10:35 AM

Break (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

10:35 AM - 12:00 Noon

Short Presentations (3 concurrent panels, 3 papers each) 

Text Analysis: Placing Subjects in Space (Zion Room)

The Escuela Nacional Unificada in the Headlines”  
Juan Pablo Couyoumdjian, Eugenio Guzmán, and John Londregan

"Word Embeddings for the Estimation of Ideological Placement in Parliamentary Corpora"
Ludovic Rheault and Christopher Cochrane 

"Analysis of Political Texts in Multiple Languages"
Burt Monroe and Mitchell Goist 

Discussant: Rachel Blum
Chair: Rebekah Tromble

 
Natural experiments (Amphitheater)

"Measuring the Effect of Education Policy on Ethnic Inclusion in Kenya: Use of Natural Experiment and Regression Discontinuity Design"
Hye Sung Kim 

"A Natural Experiment on Taste-Based Discrimination in U.S. Elections"
David E. Broockman and Evan J. Soltas      

"Much Obliged: Reputation, Participation, Compliance, and the UN Security Council"
Evangeline Reynolds                     

Discussant: John Holbein      
Chair: Jessica Trounstine


Group-level estimates and effects 
(Birch Room)             

Sparse Multilevel Regression (and Poststratification (sMRP))"
Max Goplerud, Shiro Kuriwaki, Marc Ratkovic, and Dustin Tingley

"Mass Acceptance of Women in Politics in the U.S. States and its Consequences for Women Candidacies"
Jamil S. Scott and Corwin W. Smidt

"Did Trump Change Minds or Voters? Using Merged Voter Files and Precinct-Level Election Returns to Decompose the Sources of Electoral Change: 2012 to 2016"
Seth Hill, Daniel Hopkins, and Gregory Huber 

Discussant: Chris Tausanovich
Chair: Ines Levin

12:00 Noon - 2:00 PM

Lunch (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)
Graduate Student Poster Session: Friday

 2:00 - 3:15 PM

Regular Presentations (3 concurrent) 

"InDetermination: Measuring Uncertainty in Social Science Texts"
Sarah Bouchat
Discussant: Brandon Stewart
Chair: Benjamin Bagozzi
(Zion Room)

"The role of the propensity score in the synthetic control method"
Eli Ben-Michael, Avi Feller, and Jesse Rothstein
Discussant: Xiang Zhou
Chair: Mirya Holman
(Amphitheater)

"Improving probabilistic record linkage: Accurate links and measures of uncertainty"
Brendan McVeigh, Bradley Spahn, and Jared S. Murray
Discussant: Adam Bonica
Chair: Sunshine Hillygus
(Birch Room)

3:15 - 3:35 PM

Break (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

3:35 - 5:00 PM

Society Business Meeting and Diversity Plenary Panel (Zion Room
Chair: Kosuke Imai

5:00 - 6:30 PM

Post-graduate (Faculty) and Pre-graduate (AERoPUP) Poster Session (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

Non-academic job booths (North Lobby)

7:00 - 9:30 PM

35th Anniversary Dinner at Big Springs in Provo Canyon (transportation provided)


Saturday

8:00 - 9:00 AM

Breakfast (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

9:00 - 10:15 AM

Regular Presentations (3 concurrent)

"Matching with Text Data: An Experimental Evaluation of Methods for Matching Documents and of Measuring Match Quality"
Reagan Mozer, Aaron R. Kaufman, Luke Miratrix, and Jason Anastasopoulos
Discussant: Joshua Lerner 
Chair: Leah Windsor
(Zion Room)

"Making Sense of Sensitivity: Extending Omitted Variable Bias"
Chad Hazlett and Carlos Cinelli
Discussant: Adam Glynn
Chair: Annika Fredén
(Cedar Room)

"Reverse Engineering APIs: Machine-Learning Applications for Understanding When and How the Use of Twitter’s APIs Biases Scientific Inference"
Rebekah Tromble
Discussant: Adeline Lo
Chair: Lisa Argyle
(Birch Room)

10:15 - 10:35 AM

Break (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)

10:35 AM - 12:00 Noon

Short Presentations (3 concurrent panels, 3 papers each)


Hidden Data 
(Zion Room)

"Developments in Positive Empirical Models of Election Frauds: Dimensions and Decisions"
Diogo Ferrari, Kevin McAlister, and Walter Mebane 

"Bootstrap Inference and Differential Privacy: Standard Errors for Free"
Thomas Brawner and James Honaker

Replicable Privacy: Enabling Replicable Research on Sensitive Internet Data
Suso B. Baleato, James Honaker, and Mercè Crosas

Discussant: Bryce Corrigan
Chair: Laila Wahedi


Surveys: Conjoint Experiments 
(Cedar Room)

"Item Response Theory for Conjoint Survey Experiments"
Devin Caughey, Hiroto Katsumata, and Teppei Yamamoto

"Voters' Preference for Candidates' Attributes in Chile: Mediation and Interaction effects"
Carmen Le Foulon

"Measuring the Intensity of Policy Preferences"
Chris Tausanovitch

Discussant: Alex Theodoridis
Chair: Stephen Goggin


Estimating/Testing Game Theoretic Models 
(Birch Room)

"Estimating Signaling Games in International Relations: Problems and Solutions"
Casey Crisman-Cox

"Diplomatic Relations and Conflict Management: A Dynamic Analysis"
Brenton Kenkel

"Learning About Growth and Democracy"
Scott Abramson and Sergio Montero

Discussant: Kentaro Fukumoto
Chair: Cassy Dorff

12:00 Noon - 1:00 PM

Lunch (Bryce/Arches/Canyon Rooms)